U.S. carriers are bracing for the rising jet fuel prices to play a significant role in their quarterly results and airfares as the conflict in Iran continues.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said Friday that the airline expects a “meaningful” impact on its first-quarter results, adding it could see further effects in the second quarter if the unrest continues.
Widespread unrest in the Middle East has caused airlines to cancel, reschedule, and reroute flights in the region. The rise in jet fuel adds to the uncertainty and delivers a blow to an industry already scrambling to adjust, with thousands of travelers stranded around the world.
Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the start of 2026. Since many air tickets are typically purchased weeks or months in advance, this sudden increase forces airlines to absorb the cost in the short term.
While the industry hopes for a swift end and recovery in the Middle East, a prolonged conflict and sustained rise in jet fuel could potentially deliver the biggest challenge it has seen since the pandemic.
Airlines could struggle to fill seats and stay profitable, and some could hit breaking points of unsustainable losses. Jet fuel prices typically account for about 20% of an airline’s total costs, the second most alongside labor. A sharp and sustained rise can quickly wipe out profits from airlines in the green in previous years.
Rising fuel costs could also force inflation, decreasing disposable income. This can impact demand, particularly for the most price-sensitive travelers.
Featured image by the author.
