Some Are Cancelling Japan Trips Over a Fictional Earthquake Prediction by a Manga Artist

It’s not worth cancelling a trip to Japan over something you see on the internet. Earthquakes happen all the time in the country, and it’s impossible to predict them scientifically.

Over the past several months, I’ve been seeing social media posts and blog posts regarding a fictional earthquake prediction in Japan by a manga artist (comic artist). I sighed and brushed it off the first time, thinking it was another stupid social media trend.

But I kept hearing about it, and it got to the point where mainstream news sites began writing articles. Once I saw a Bloomberg article, that really got my attention.

I debated talking about this for a while. But given my Japanese background and the amount of Japan content I write, I finally decided to do so.

The manga (comic) book about this earthquake is this:

  • The author is Ryo Tatsuki, and the manga is titled “The Future I Saw.”
  • The first edition was published in 1999, and it wrote about an earthquake in March 2011. That was the same month and year as the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Eastern Japan.
  • The latest edition writes about an earthquake in July 2025, with some stating that July 5 will be the day of disaster.

The author herself has denied that her written work is a prophecy of any natural disaster. Reuters reported that she has tried to address the speculation, stating that she “is not a prophet.”

Still, travelers have reacted to this buzzing around on social media, some even cancelling their trips. According to government data, foreign visitors from Hong Kong went down 11.2% year over year in May. The report cited these earthquake rumors on the internet to be a contributing factor to the decrease in numbers.

If we do see more evident decreases in foreign tourist numbers, I expect that to be in the July data.

Still though, Japan has seen a record number of foreign visitors this year, and the nation is on pace to hit a record 40 million by the end of this year.

I’ve lived through many large earthquakes in Japan. I was in Tokyo during the magnitude 9 earthquake in 2011, and have seen other major earthquakes in the country play out on live television at my Tokyo residence.

Earthquakes and natural disasters are not my area of expertise, but there’s one thing that’s clear: it’s quite literally impossible to predict a major earthquake. The same Reuters report quoted Robert Geller, a professor at the University of Tokyo who has studied seismology since 1971, who stated that it’s impossible to estimate earthquakes scientifically.

Japan is one of the most seismically studied countries in the world, and the best the nation can do is the earthquake alert system that goes off about 30 to 60 seconds prior.

The reality is, earthquakes happen all the time in and around Japan. The next big one could be tomorrow, it could be on July 5, or it could’ve been yesterday. Was the Noto Earthquake on January 1, 2024, that killed 618 people and counting, predicted scientifically? Was the Kumamoto Earthquake on April 16, 2016, that killed 216 people, predicted scientifically? Earthquakes are happening all the time. Hell, we can even point to the 1000+ earthquakes off the coast of the island of Kyushu right now, probably signaling volcanic activity.

So, is it worth cancelling an entire Japan trip over some fictional prediction from a manga artist? No, of course not. The likelihood of a big earthquake happening during a 1-week visit to the country is the same as when you are sitting in your office for an entire week.

Natural disasters can strike at any time. Humans have little to no control over them, and it’s part of life to walk outside while acknowledging the probability.

All photos taken by the author.

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