By Shawn Gallagher
Turbulence is normal to encounter on any flight. I mostly see it as a minor annoyance, especially during meal times when I have to eat my food with my arm shaking from turbulence, making sure my drink doesn’t spill, or when the flight attendants have to pause service. This happens all the time.
However, we also see major events from turbulence, where passengers and flight attendants get thrown around the cabin from rapid drops in altitude and cause injuries. Earlier this year, a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe turbulence, resulting in many injuries and even 1 fatality.
This was a stark reminder for passenger safety inside the cabin. I was flying on that day too, and flight attendants stressed the importance of wearing seatbelts citing the tragedy in the skies on that day.
There have been many other cases of similar incidents of severe turbulence this year, which may have some wondering: Is turbulence becoming more common?
What Exactly Is Clear Air Turbulence, Anyway?
The aviation industry refers to this kind of turbulence as clear air turbulence. This occurs when air of different speeds and directions meet in the absence of clouds and other clear signs. Hense the name “clear air” turbulence.
Severe cases of clear air turbulence can be dangerous because it can be unexpected and has the potential to cause injuries inside an aircraft. Passengers and crew without seatbelts can get flung across the cabin, and plates and silverware can be thrown up and down. Korean Air even recently stopped serving instant hot noodles on flights to prevent burns from turbulence.
All in all, this is what we’ve seen with the Singapore Airlines Flight, and a bunch of other flights that faced similar incidents.
Storms, such as hurricanes and thunderstorms, also cause turbulence, but the difference with these is that they can be avoided more easily and are expected.
So, Is Clear Air Turbulence Becoming More Common?
The short answer is yes. A recent study by Prosser et al. (2023) showed that since 1979, light or greater clear turbulence increased by 17%, and the most severe type of clear air turbulence increased by 55% over the North Atlantic Ocean. Similar results were also found across the continental United States. The report notes that these results are “consistent with the expected effects of climate change.”
Jet streams have a huge effect on air travel, and clear air turbulence is one of them. As jet streams get more energy and become more intense from climate change, the more clear air turbulence we can expect on our flights.
This can have many effects on the aviation industry. More common incidents of turbulence mean more maintenance and airframe fatigue for airlines which can drive up operating costs. In the United States, an estimated $200 million annually is expected to be spent on these repairs. (Prosser et al.). As I mentioned earlier, it’s also a safety issue for passengers and crew on board. It’s imperative to keep that seatbelt on whenever seated.
There isn’t much we as passengers can do about turbulence. However, there’s a reason why airline safety videos always say to keep seatbelts fasted whenever seated, even when the sign is off. This prevents us from getting flung into the air in case of sudden drops in altitude from clear air turbulence.
Read the full study by Prosser et al. (2023) here.
All photos taken by the author.